ABSTRACT
Background: Peru has experienced unprecedented mortality and economic toll due to the COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic in 2020. We aimed to assess the association between socioeconomic factors and excess death rate, and to explore the relative contribution of these factors to the differences in excess death rate during January-December 2020. Methods: Different national secondary data sources were used to describe excess death rates and different determinants, from distal to proximal. A confounding-adjusted multilevel mixed-effects linear regression was used to assess the association between these variables and excess death rates. Their relative contributions to the differences in excess death rate between the periods with the highest and lowest excess death rates were analyzed through regression-based Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition methods. Findings: The excess death rate showed an increasing trend in all regions, with different slopes. The confounding-adjusted multilevel analysis showed that higher healthcare access was associated with lower excess death rates (difference (95%CI) -0.004 (-0.005, -0.002)), whereas COVID-19 incidence was associated with higher excess death rates (difference (95%CI) 0.052 (0.042, 0.063)). The decomposition analysis showed COVID-19 incidence (41.9%), per capita income (19.4%) and unemployment rate (14.6%) as the main risk factors, while the main protective factors included per capita health expenditure (44.7%), healthcare access (33.2%) and health insurance (12.1%). Interpretation: Our study suggests that the excess death rate during the COVID-19 pandemic in Peru may have been influenced by other factors besides COVID-19 incidence, from distal to proximal drivers, including socioeconomic determinants, factors outside and within the health sector, and susceptibility factors. Further studies at individual level are needed to corroborate our findings.
ABSTRACT
The aim was to analyze the characteristics and predictors of unfavorable outcomes in solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) with COVID-19. We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of 210 consecutive SOTRs hospitalized with COVID-19 in 12 Spanish centers from 21 February to 6 May 2020. Data pertaining to demographics, chronic underlying diseases, transplantation features, clinical, therapeutics, and complications were collected. The primary endpoint was a composite of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and/or death. Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the factors associated with these unfavorable outcomes. Males accounted for 148 (70.5%) patients, the median age was 63 years, and 189 (90.0%) patients had pneumonia. Common symptoms were fever, cough, gastrointestinal disturbances, and dyspnea. The most used antiviral or host-targeted therapies included hydroxychloroquine 193/200 (96.5%), lopinavir/ritonavir 91/200 (45.5%), and tocilizumab 49/200 (24.5%). Thirty-seven (17.6%) patients required ICU admission, 12 (5.7%) suffered graft dysfunction, and 45 (21.4%) died. A shorter interval between transplantation and COVID-19 diagnosis had a negative impact on clinical prognosis. Four baseline features were identified as independent predictors of intensive care need or death: advanced age, high respiratory rate, lymphopenia, and elevated level of lactate dehydrogenase. In summary, this study presents comprehensive information on characteristics and complications of COVID-19 in hospitalized SOTRs and provides indicators available upon hospital admission for the identification of SOTRs at risk of critical disease or death, underlining the need for stringent preventative measures in the early post-transplant period.